Liuyao shares (603368): Transient factors cause the company’s performance to be slightly lower than expected
The company released the 2019 annual report performance forecast.
The company released a performance forecast, which is expected to gradually realize net profit attributable to mothers in 20196.
30 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.
21%, realizing net profit deduction 6
160,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
Transient factors caused the company’s performance to be slightly lower than expected.
Looking at the median notice given by the company, the growth rate of net profit after deduction in 19 years was 30.
8%, slightly lower than expected overall.
The company’s Q4 single-quarter deduction of non-after-mother net profit growth rate was 8.
8%, its single-quarter profit growth rate has dropped significantly, mainly due to transient factors: the hospital’s active destocking brought by volume purchase, affecting about half a month or so.
Because the national expansion of volume procurement was implemented on January 1, 北京桑拿洗浴保健 the existing price reduction factors caused the overall pharmaceutical procurement of Guangxi Provincial Hospital to stagnate after mid-December, which meant that there was a gap of about half a month.
After January, the hospital will enter the stage of resumption of procurement and replenishment of inventory. This half-month business gap will be filled in the first quarter of 2020.
Equity incentive expenses are accrued in Q4.
The company completed the equity incentive in June, and the expenses were not accrued in Ford’s interim and three quarterly reports, 1847.
The total cost of 450,000 yuan was confirmed in Q4. After considering the expectations, it will affect the profit growth rate of about 11% in the quarter.
The chain difference caused by Metrohm’s consolidation time.
The 60% equity of Vantone acquired by the 杭州夜网论坛 company was consolidated in Q4 2018, and the company’s growth rate in the first three quarters of 2019 was due to the merger of Vantone.
Transient factors do not affect long-term trends, and the company’s current cost performance is still high.
We believe that transient factors will not affect the company’s long-term trend. The current company is only 10x in 20 years, which corresponds to a compound growth of 20-25% in the next 3 years, and the cost performance is still high.
At the same time, we always agree that the 2019 Interim Report is the inflection point of the circulation companies’ performance, and the 2019 Annual Report will be the inflection point of the cash flows of the circulation enterprises (zero markup, the impact of the two-vote system is weakened), and it is recommended to focus on it.
Profit forecast: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mother to be 7 in 19-21.
08 million yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.
2%, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 12x, 10x, 8x, maintaining the “Buy” level.
Risk reminder: The integration of the distribution industry in Guangxi Province is lower than the expected risk; the pressure on medical insurance control fees continues to increase the risk; the company’s pharmacy business expansion is less than the expected risk