Liuyao shares (603368): Transient factors cause the company’s performance to be slightly lower than expected

Liuyao shares (603368): Transient factors cause the company’s performance to be slightly lower than expected

The company released the 2019 annual report performance forecast.

The company released a performance forecast, which is expected to gradually realize net profit attributable to mothers in 20196.


30 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

74% -38.

21%, realizing net profit deduction 6

66 ppm-7.

160,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

07% -35.


  Transient factors caused the company’s performance to be slightly lower than expected.

Looking at the median notice given by the company, the growth rate of net profit after deduction in 19 years was 30.

8%, slightly lower than expected overall.

The company’s Q4 single-quarter deduction of non-after-mother net profit growth rate was 8.

8%, its single-quarter profit growth rate has dropped significantly, mainly due to transient factors: the hospital’s active destocking brought by volume purchase, affecting about half a month or so.

Because the national expansion of volume procurement was implemented on January 1, 北京桑拿洗浴保健 the existing price reduction factors caused the overall pharmaceutical procurement of Guangxi Provincial Hospital to stagnate after mid-December, which meant that there was a gap of about half a month.

After January, the hospital will enter the stage of resumption of procurement and replenishment of inventory. This half-month business gap will be filled in the first quarter of 2020.

  Equity incentive expenses are accrued in Q4.

The company completed the equity incentive in June, and the expenses were not accrued in Ford’s interim and three quarterly reports, 1847.

The total cost of 450,000 yuan was confirmed in Q4. After considering the expectations, it will affect the profit growth rate of about 11% in the quarter.

  The chain difference caused by Metrohm’s consolidation time.

The 60% equity of Vantone acquired by the 杭州夜网论坛 company was consolidated in Q4 2018, and the company’s growth rate in the first three quarters of 2019 was due to the merger of Vantone.

  Transient factors do not affect long-term trends, and the company’s current cost performance is still high.

We believe that transient factors will not affect the company’s long-term trend. The current company is only 10x in 20 years, which corresponds to a compound growth of 20-25% in the next 3 years, and the cost performance is still high.

At the same time, we always agree that the 2019 Interim Report is the inflection point of the circulation companies’ performance, and the 2019 Annual Report will be the inflection point of the cash flows of the circulation enterprises (zero markup, the impact of the two-vote system is weakened), and it is recommended to focus on it.

  Profit forecast: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mother to be 7 in 19-21.

11, 8.

92, 11.

08 million yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.

7%, 25.

3%, 24.

2%, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 12x, 10x, 8x, maintaining the “Buy” level.

  Risk reminder: The integration of the distribution industry in Guangxi Province is lower than the expected risk; the pressure on medical insurance control fees continues to increase the risk; the company’s pharmacy business expansion is less than the expected risk

Exploratory Shares (603458) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Southwestern Design Leader Accelerates Expansion

Exploratory Shares (603458) 2018 Annual Report Comment: Southwestern Design Leader Accelerates Expansion

The increase in performance and the proportion of engineering contracting business increased the company’s revenue in 201821.

5.2 billion, an increase of 11 in ten years.

66%; net profit attributable to mothers3.

5.3 billion, an annual increase of 7.


Among them, the main business engineering consulting realized income 17.

100,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

19%, accounting for 79% of total income.

46%; the second largest business project contracting achieved operating income4.

340,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

93%, increasing to 20% of total revenue.


The highest new starting point is 50.

5.9 billion, including 27 in the new decade of engineering consulting.

6.2 billion, an annual increase of 1.

43%; the company actively responded to the “Belt and Road” policy, 深圳桑拿网 set up branches in Zambia, Kenya and other countries, and signed new overseas orders of about 2.

700 million.

The engineering contracting business affected the gross profit margin and the cash flow improved. The company’s ROE in 2018 was 16.

92%, a decline of 9 per year.

60 points.

The gross profit margin is 39.

70%, falling by 1 every year.

At 31pct, the decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of engineering contract business revenue with low gross profit margin; the net profit margin was 16.

40%, a decline of 0 every year.


Period expenses14.

34%, an increase of 0 a year.

89pct; in which the management expense rate is increased by 1.

44 points to 12.

60%, the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.

60pct to 0.

26%, the sales expense ratio increased by 0.

04pct to 1.


Asset and liability accounting 43.

90%, a slight increase of 0 a year.

44 points.

The report generally shows that cash flow has improved due to the amount of project deposits paid, and the operating net cash flow / operating income is -5.30%, a decline of 9 per year.

21 points.

Q4 performance rebounded in 2018Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 completed revenue 4 respectively.

4.1 billion, 5.

56 billion, 4.

32 billion, 7.

22 billion, an annual increase of 11.

85%, 42.

15%, -14.

82%, 13.

95%; realized net profit of 0.

57 billion, 1.

16 billion, 0.

46 billion, 1.

3.4 billion, an increase of 12 in ten years.

98%, 21.

16%, -57.

48%, 78.


The growth of the company’s performance in the fourth quarter improved somewhat.

The growth of markets outside the province is strong, and the shortcomings of infrastructure construction are expected to give priority to the company’s rapid expansion in the past two years. The business outside the province has developed rapidly.

In 2018, the company’s new growth orders outside the Guizhou Province26.

24 ppm, an increase of 262 previously.

93%, accounting for 51% of total orders.


Most of the provinces with a national transportation investment plan of more than 100 billion in 2019 are concentrated in the southwestern region. The company will fully benefit from the current round of infrastructure supplementary boom in the southwestern region, and performance and orders will promote a rebound.

Profit forecast and investment advice: The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be 3.



75 yuan, PE is 10 respectively.



7 times.

Maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: bad debts of accounts receivable, the name of infrastructure investment, and the policy strength is less than expected.

China Communications Construction (601800): Steady growth and benefit from infrastructure investment recovery

China Communications Construction (601800): Steady growth and benefit from infrastructure investment recovery


Investment Event Company Announces 2019 Interim Report.

2019H1 company realized operating income of 2402.

73 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.


Achieve net profit of 85.

77 ppm, a ten-year increase4.



Analyze and judge the semi-annual performance to 武汉夜网论坛 grow steadily as scheduled.

2019H1 company realized operating income of 2402.

7.3 billion, an annual increase of 15.

31%, of which infrastructure construction projects achieved operating income of 2117.

8.8 billion, an annual increase of 15.

17%, accounting for 88% of total income.


The company achieved a net profit of 85.

77 ppm, a ten-year increase4.


Realize deduction of non-net profit 72.

64 ppm, a reduction of 3 per year.


Net cash flow from operating activities -397.

67 ppm, a reduction of 67 per year.

2.2 billion.

EPS is 0.

47 yuan / share, an increase of 0 every year.

02 yuan / share.

The company’s performance continued to grow steadily and healthily.

The cost rate improved significantly during the period.

The 2019H1 company’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 11.

88%, a decrease of 1 per year.

99pct, of which gross profit margin of infrastructure projects is 11.

20%, down 1.

82pct was mainly due to the lower contribution of overseas projects with higher profit levels compared to last year, and the increase in subcontracting scale and material costs.

The company’s net margin is 3.

98%, reducing by 0 every year.

16 points. Company expenses during the reporting period 7.

32%, reduced by 0 every year.

85 points.

Management expenses

45%, reduced by 0 every year.

45 points; financial expenses 5.

68%, a decrease of 0 per year.

36 points; selling expenses 0.

19%, a decrease of 0 per year.


During the period, the cost rate dropped significantly.

Orders in hand were full, and infrastructure orders increased steadily.

The new long-term order of H1 company in 2019 is 4,967.

28 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

88%, of which the number of foreigners from overseas in the new decade was 1121.

9 billion yuan, down 7.

72%, accounting for 23%, and the contract amount recognized from PPP investment projects is 672.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 3.

78%, accounting for 14%, holding 19192 in outstanding orders.

6 billion.

From the perspective of infrastructure business, the company’s new contract value for infrastructure construction business was 4,407.

29 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

53%, the new contract value from overseas regions is 1057.

42 trillion, the contract value from PPP investment projects confirmed was 663.

56 trillion, the amount of outstanding contracts held in execution is 17,329.

4.7 billion.

The “Belt and Road” has broad space for development, and infrastructure investment will benefit from the recovery.

In the first half of the year, the company signed 34 category agreements at the second “Belt and Road” summit, and successfully restarted the East Coast Railway project in Malaysia; it won consecutive bids for Saudi Bugat East Road Bridge, Singapore ‘s Changi Airport Three-Runway ARC Section, Abu DhabiSubstantial progress has been made in projects such as the first phase of the Lifa Port Station; the Port of Lekki project in Nigeria; and the third-phase container terminal project in Thailand.

Breakthrough progress has been made in overseas projects.

The annual infrastructure investment in 2019 is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate.

The company has accumulated 60 years of experience in comprehensive services in investment, design, construction, operation and management of transportation infrastructure such as ports, roads and railways, railways, tunnels, rail transit, and municipal services.

With the gradual recovery of infrastructure investment, the company is expected to continue to benefit.


Financial analysis During 2014, the company’s operating income continued to increase, with a slight change in growth. In 2017, the company’s net profit increased rapidly and then gradually declined.

In 2019, H1’s operating income increased by 15 in ten years.

31%, net profit is increasing by 4 per year.


The company’s operating income and net profit exceeded the transition rate of growth. It increased in 2017, gradually declined in 2018, and increased in 2019.

During the period of 2014-2016, the company’s expense ratio and management expense ratio continued to rise, and it was gradually controlled after 2017.

The company’s gross profit margin fluctuated slightly.Since 2015, the company’s net interest rate has continued to decline.


The investment proposal estimates that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.



65 yuan / share, corresponding to a dynamic price-earnings ratio of 7.



5 times, give “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Infrastructure investment is less than expected risk; accounts receivable recovery is less than expected risk; overseas markets are less than expected risk.

Traffic Control Technology (688015): CBTC’s domestic pioneer has outstanding competitive advantages

Traffic Control Technology (688015): CBTC’s domestic pioneer has outstanding competitive advantages

Always focused on the field of urban rail transit signal systems, the main business is outstanding.

The company is a pioneer in the localization of CBTC signal systems. With the independent mastery of CBTC core technology in 2010 and the successful application to the “Beijing Yizhuang Line” as its mark, the company successfully broke through the monopoly of signal systems of foreign manufacturers.

From 2016 to 2018, the company’s operating income was 8 respectively.



6.3 billion, with a CAGR of 14.

51%, of which, the railway contract signal system general contracting business is the company’s main source of operating income, the proportion of revenue in 2016-2018 has always remained above 90%.

During the same period, the company realized zero net profit attributable to its mother.



6.6 billion, with a CAGR of 11.

20%, steady growth in performance and good profitability.

The construction of urban rails has bred hundreds of billions of markets, and the company’s leading categories have significantly outperformed industry dividends.

As the main component of the urban rail automation system, the rail transit signal system benefits from the rapid growth of the urban rail transportation industry, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan.

Among them: the new line market is more than 76.1 billion US dollars, the existing line transformation market is more than 9 billion U.S. dollars, the heavy-haul railway transformation market is more than 21.4 billion U.S. dollars, the total market size is more than 106.5 billion U.S. dollars.

At present, there are many internal manufacturers with general contracting qualifications for urban rail transit signal systems. From the perspective of the market share of winning bids, the company’s winning bids for the market in 2016-2018 are respectively.

88%, 24.

13%, 30.

77%, the market share is increasing year by year, reaching the number one in the industry in 2018, the leading advantage is obvious.

All-round competitive advantage to build a company moat.

As a leading domestic manufacturer, traffic control technology has three major advantages to help the company maintain its leading position: ① relying on university research and development platforms and government support to achieve deep integration of scientific and technological achievements with the industry; ② products with high reliability and security, while deep understanding of domestic downstreamCustomer needs; ③ The industry barrier is high, and the company’s long-term accumulation in the urban rail signal system highlights its obvious first-mover advantage and technical advantage.

Investment suggestion: The company is expected to earn 15 in 2019-2021.

76, 20.

53, 26.

6.9 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mothers were 1.

05, 1.

22, 1.

53 trillion, corresponding to EPS.

88, 1.

02, 1.

28 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 70.

46, 60.

57, 48.


Risk reminder: The national urban rail transit 杭州夜网论坛 construction investment is less than expected, technological upgrades replace risks, and changes in income structure cause the company’s profitability to decline

US Detector Flies Over The End of the World to Realize the Farthest 邂逅 in History

US Detector Flies Over “The End of the World” to Realize the Farthest “邂逅” in History
Xinhua News Agency, Los Angeles, January 1st (Reporter Tan Jingjing) After nearly 13 years of space shuttle, the New Horizons U.S. spacecraft flew a small object on the edge of the solar system, the Kuiper belt, nicknamed Tianya Haijiao, to complete the most distant history in human historyAn interstellar encounter.  At 0:33 a.m. EST on the 1st (13:33 a.m. on Beijing time), the New Horizons flew at a speed of about 50,000 kilometers per hour from only 3,500 kilometers from the ends of the earth and explored farther into the world.At 淡水桑拿网 this time, the horizon was about 6.5 billion kilometers from the sun, about 1.6 billion kilometers further than Pluto.This release of the flyby is the first time a human probe has observed the small Kuiper Belt objects up close.  The End of the World is numbered 2014 MU69.It is estimated that its diameter is about 30 kilometers, its volume is less than 1% of Pluto, and its mass is only one ten thousandth of Pluto.  The NASA live broadcast showed that in the countdown center of the New Horizons team, several people witnessed the historic moment of the New Horizons and the End of the World. Everyone rejoiced and shared the 2019 New Year gifts from the New Horizons.New Horizons chief scientist Stern said New Horizons set a new record for the farthest interstellar encounter.This is a flyby that is both risky and confident. This is the best result of the team’s hard work for many years.  The New Horizons spacecraft was launched in January 2006, fulfilling the first human mission to detect objects in the Kuiper belt such as Pluto, looking for clues about the origin and evolution of the solar system.The detector is equipped with 7 detection devices, including optical detection, plasma detection, and dust detection equipment.  On July 14, 2015, New Horizons flew close to Pluto, becoming the first human probe to detect this distant dwarf planet at close range, sending back a large number of precious photos and scientific measurement data.Since then, New Horizons has been conducting more in-depth research in this distant area and is preparing to go on a date with the End of the World.  The End of the World is located in the Kuiper Belt on the edge of the solar system. It is thought to be a place full of small frozen rock objects. They may still keep the information of the solar system just 4.6 billion years ago. Original Title: The United States “New Horizons” Fly Over “The End of the World” to Realize the Farthest “邂逅” in History

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): Profitability of Vinegar Improves Fast Growth of Cooking Wine

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): Profitability of Vinegar Improves Fast Growth of Cooking Wine

Hengshun Vinegar’s 2018 revenue16.

9.4 billion (+9.

87%), net profit 3.

50,000 yuan (+8.

44%) Hengshun Vinegar published its annual report on April 15, 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 16 in 2018.

9.4 billion, an annual increase of 9.


Realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.


Realize the deduction of non-net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

19 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.


4Q18 single quarter sales revenue4.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.


Realized net profit of 0.

86 ‰, a decrease of 36 per year.


The company’s performance basically meets the expectations of our Air Force.

We estimate that the EPS of Hengshun Vinegar Industry from 2019 to 2021 will be 0.

44 yuan, 0.

51 yuan and 0.

57 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

  From the perspective of brand, product and channel, the market is intensively cultivated to promote rapid growth of revenue. From the perspective of brand, the company deepens with end consumer customers, especially young, through means such as big data analysis, high-speed rail media, terminal brand packaging and standardization of brand materials.Consumer interaction strengthens Hengshun’s brand influence in consumers’ minds.

From a product perspective, Hengshun continues to promote the “big single product strategy”, focusing on the two categories of vinegar and cooking wine, while distinguishing the price positioning of the two brands of Hengshun and Beigushan, further enhancing the product power of Hengshun vinegar.

From the perspective of channels, Hengshun has increased the resources of the catering channels on the basis of the traditional retail channels, developed product specifications applicable to the catering channels, and established a catering division to promote the further improvement of the channel structure.

  Vinegar is driven by the optimization of product structure to improve profitability, and the rapid growth of income in cooking wine under a common priority strategy. In the vinegar field where the right to speak is shifted, the company is focusing on promoting the volume of mid-to-high-end products.
The improvement of product structure has obviously promoted the gross profit margin of this business, and the gross profit margin of vinegar reached 44 in 2018.

03%, up 2 every year.

02pct; The cooking wine business still adheres to the strategy of holding priority and achieves revenue in 20181.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

84%, significantly faster than the company’s overall revenue growth.

However, the average selling price of cooking wine dropped by 5% each year, and drove the gross profit margin to 33.

19%, a decline of 6 per year.

31 points.

  The price increase of some vinegar products in 2019 has a positive impact on the profitability of the vinegar business. From January 1, 2019, the company raised the ex-factory prices of some core products including Hengshun Balsamic Vinegar (the related products in 2018 were 2).

3.6 billion), with an average price adjustment of 12.96%.

Although the coverage of this product price increase is not wide (the products involved replace 14% of the 2018 revenue), the price increase is relatively relative (the average price 深圳桑拿按摩网 increase in 2016 was 9%).

We think this price increase highlights the company’s right to speak in the vinegar industry and will positively affect the profitability of the vinegar business.

  Optimistic about the product structure upgrade of Hengshun Vinegar and the flexibility of cooking wine business, maintaining the “overweight” ratingThe company contributed growth momentum.

We expect the company’s revenue to reach 19 in 2019-2021.

1.7 billion (up 1%), 21.

3.4 billion and 23.

6.1 billion.

The net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 3 respectively.

4.7 billion (up 2%), 3.

9.9 billion (up 5%) and 4.

4.8 billion.

Comparable companies estimate an average of 38 times in 2019, giving Hengshun Vinegar a PE estimate of 37-38 times in 2019, with a target price range of 16.


72 yuan 北京夜网 to maintain the “overweight” level.

  Risk warning: potential risks to demand after product price increases; food safety issues.

Northern Huachuang (002371): Fast growth in performance will be approved Increased R & D and production expansion Start a new round of high-speed development

Northern Huachuang (002371): Fast growth in performance will be approved Increased R & D and production expansion Start a new round of high-speed development

The company achieved revenue of 27 in the first three quarters.

3.7 billion yuan (+30.

24%), net profit attributable to mother 2.

1.9 billion (+30.

(09%), of which Q3 achieved revenue of 10 in a single quarter.

8.2 billion (+53.

17%), net profit attributable to mother 0.

9.1 billion (+82.


Comprehensive gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 42.

05%, a year to increase by 1.

80pct, Q3 gross profit margin 39.

58%, a decrease of 3 per year.

80pct, gross profit margin remained basically stable.

The scale of income is constantly expanding, the absolute value of accounts receivable and inventory are at historical highs, and cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters is -9.

600,000 yuan, the amount of inventory at the end of the third quarter is 35.

89 ‰, an increase of 24 per year.

30%, the amount of inventory maintained a rapid growth trend.

  The R & D expenses have increased significantly, and the management expense ratio has been declining to increase the company’s profits.

From an expense perspective, the company’s sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios totaled 34 in the first three quarters.

68%, an increase of 3 per year.

3无锡夜网7pct, from a single quarter of Q3, the period expense ratio is 32.

14%, a decline of 4 per year.

39pct, in which the management expense ratio increased by a single quarter and had a positive effect on the increase of net profit.

R & D expenses in the first three quarters3.

530,000 yuan, an increase of 168 in ten years.

77%, R & D expense ratio is 12.

90%, an increase of 6 per year.

65pct. From the data point of view, the total R & D expenditure is consistent with the expansion of cost-based R & D, and it is also a reflection of the company’s mature product development.

  Approval of fixed increase, increased R & D and production expansion, the proportion of large fund holdings will continue to increase, and a new round of high-speed development begins.

On October 28, the company received the approval from the CSRC. According to the adjustment plan, the company will raise no more than 2 billion funds (large fund 9).

100 million + Beijing Electric Control 5.

9 trillion + Jingguorui 5 trillion), the investment plan for high-end IC equipment projects17.

8 ppm + high-precision electronic components project 2.

200 million yuan, is expected to reach an annual average sales income of 26.

40,000 yuan, the total annual average profit of the project reached 5.

1) The big fund already holds the company7.
5% shares, after the completion of this issuance, the share of large funds will be further increased, showing confidence in the company’s development; 2) The company will gradually realize the industrialization of 14-nanometer equipment on the basis of 28-nanometer, and carry out 5 / 7-nanometer equipmentResearch and development of key technologies, the development of grinding equipment can be advanced smoothly, and breakthroughs in key indicators have been achieved. 3) Investment of 2 billion US dollars for expansion and research and development, can cut the company’s products fully verified downstream, very optimistic about industry development and demand.

  Investment advice and rating: The company’s net profit for 2019-2021 is expected to be 3.

5.1 billion, 5.

20 billion, 7.

2.2 billion, corresponding to PE of 90x, 60x, 44x, maintaining the “Buy” level.

  Risk Warning: The development of the semiconductor industry is less than expected; new product development is less than expected

Jin Qilin (603586): Good industry, good track, good company

Jin Qilin (603586): Good industry, good track, good company
The report reads the company’s products. Brake discs and brake pads are key components of automotive braking systems and are frequently replaced. The main sales markets cover the two major markets of the OEM market and the AM market. The industry has huge market space.The company is a leading enterprise in this segment of the industry in China. It has a higher share in the export market and has more comprehensive competitiveness.Global car ownership is growing steadily, and domestic car ownership is growing rapidly. The development of OEM business will promote the rapid development of the company’s business.  Key points of investment The large scale of global car ownership supports the company’s steady development. The global car ownership is large and showing steady growth. The brake pad and brake disc AM market is huge and is expected to reach more than 70 billion yuan in 2021.The company has an expected export market share of more than 15%, has a collectively stable customer base, and uses the company’s product quality and price advantages to continuously increase its market share.  The rapid growth of domestic car ownership will bring new future years to the company’s AM business. The growth rate of these car ownership will be as high as 6.8%, making the number of cars that need to replace the brake pads and brake discs show a rapid growth.It is estimated that the replacement scale will reach 52.6 million sets and 26.18 million sets by 2023.The company has the expected product quality advantages and brand influence, and the market is expected to gradually increase.  Automotive and rail transportation OEM product business development company Development Space Company has received full recognition from customers after supplying it to Sinotruk in 四川耍耍网 2015, and obtained Daimler certification in 2018, achieving breakthroughs for rich brand customers. The company is expectedBecome a supplier to more OEM customers, and quickly expand the scale of OEM business.The company has passed the certification of EMU braking products, and is expected to enter the related fields of the rail transit industry and further expand the company’s development space.  Earnings forecast and estimate The company’s 2019-2021 earnings are expected to be 0.83/0.98/1.23 yuan, an annual increase of 101.48%, 18.71%, 25.78%.The company has a certain brand advantage in segmented industries, and its export business has a competitive advantage. Considering the company’s competitiveness and industry segmentation, the company gives the company an “overweight” rating for the first time.

Where did the record money of about 560 billion net worth go?

Where did the record money of about 560 billion net worth go?

$ 560 billion, is expected to set the record for the largest ever 北京夜网 net issuance!

Where did the money go?
  In order to let everyone have a good year, China Securities Network, “Yangma” again!

And black people are not small!

  The 7-day and 28-day reverse repurchase implemented a total of US $ 570 billion, and after hedging 10 billion tons of maturity, it hit the largest net investment in the history of open market operations in one fell swoop!

  In fact, after entering the peak period of tax payment, the transition has started reverse repurchase for three consecutive days, and on January 15th, the first wave of downgrade funds came into effect.

But even with such a huge “red envelope” hitting the market, 7 and 14 days Shibor is still upside down, proving that the market is still “craving for thirst.”

  Where will all the initial funds go?

  Why is the market demand for funds “to be difficult to fill?”

  ”From the recent monitoring of the IBLI interbank liquidity index, the liquidity pressure in the market has been relatively high in recent days, so it is expected that a large-scale reverse repurchase will be launched.

“Said Chen Ji, senior researcher at the Development Research Department of the Bank of Communications.

  So where did the money go?

  The tax payment of over 2 trillion yuan may give you the answer.

  The Air Force, many analysts estimate that the scale of taxes paid in January will be more than 2 trillion.

According to Xiaobian’s observation, under the disturbance of shrinking tax payment, the short-term capital interest rate has continued to rise since this week.

  In essence, many analysts believe that what was put into the market in January was cash withdrawal demand before the Spring Festival.

  Guo Zaiwei, a macro analyst at Industrial Research, estimated that the funding gap for the Spring Festival will be more than 2 trillion yuan, and that with the arrival of the Spring Festival, market liquidity needs continue to increase.

  In order to protect the cross-section of funds, the 28-day reverse repurchase will be gradually restarted on the 14th. Through the reverse repurchase, cross-section funds will be accumulated to reach US $ 340 billion. If the amount of funds released is lowered, it will be released to the market.Thousands of “New Year’s money”.

  In addition to the tax and demand that existed before the holidays, Chen Ji said that the banking system had a relatively large initial asset size and fast full credit allocation. The allocation of other bond products would also generate liquidity consumption, so there must be liquidity.Sexual gap pressure, appropriate and appropriate liquidity expansion and supplementation will help alleviate early liquidity gap pressure.

  When will the tax disturbance last?

  To this day, the issue of tax periods has been mentioned in the OMO announcement for three consecutive days at the beginning of the year.

From the content of the announcement, the peak period of pressurization may continue in recent days, and January 15, 16, and 17 of previous years were also included in the tax period.

  Without the holiday extension, the tax payment period in January ends on the 15th, but why the disturbance of the tax period still exists?

  Some employees in the Dongcheng District of Beijing have stated that due to the large tax payment month in January, some provinces are caused by the tax payment system, and the tax payment may be delayed.

  From the point of view of fund interest rates, short-term fund interest rates continued to rise after entering the tax period last week, and 7-day Shibor and 14-day Shibor have been upside down since the 10th of this month.

  Today, due to the 7-day reverse repurchase period of 3500 ppm today, 7-day Shibor immediately went down by 1.

2 basis points, but other short-term deadlines Shibor is still up.

  Compared with the open market operation of the January tax period last year, on January 15, 2018, the gradual implementation of MLF and reverse repurchase totaled 548 billion, followed by the launch of 320 billion reverse repurchases on the 16th, and the reverse repurchase two days later.The initial scale is basically below 2000 trillion.

  Next week’s second wave of downgrade funding will land again!

  In fact, the “red envelope” of reverse repurchase is not just borrowing. The 7-day reverse repurchase will be withdrawn after the end of next week. Therefore, to a certain extent, the implementation of the 7-day reverse repurchase isLiquidity next week in advance.

  Then check the calendar before the festival. Is it possible that the second wave of downgrade funds will be “received” next week?

  According to market estimates, the second wave of downgrade funds will release about 750 billion US dollars of liquidity on the 25th sunset, and in terms of the withdrawal factors due to the reverse repurchase, excluding the 350 billion 7-day reverse repurchase achieved today, next weekA total of 160 billion reverse repurchases have expired, and capital disturbances are relatively relative.

  Therefore, the second wave of RRR cut funds is about to be released, coupled with the 28-day liquidity that has been launched many times this week, and multiple withdrawal requirements for the Spring Festival deadline. For the next week with relatively abundant liquidity, some of the advances will be spent this week.The tax payment period has also become reasonable.

  Not only is the RRR cut, the Democratic Transition Governor Yi Gang publicly stated that in the end of this month, TMLF will be launched for the first time, and then a certain amount of incremental funds will be provided to protect cross-section liquidity.

  Regarding the recent combination of RRR 武汉夜网论坛 reduction and reverse repurchase, Chen Ji said that for banks, it is possible to pay less deposit reserve. This extra liquidity is compared with the absorption of reverse repurchase funds of the same size.The significant difference is in the cost of capital.

  ”The cost of funds of the former can be predicted as the deposit interest rate, while the cost of other funds is the reverse repurchase rate.

Another significant difference is that the liquidity provided by the RRR cut is long-term before the reserve ratio is replaced, and it plays a role through the currency multiplier; while the reverse repurchase has a termination period, mostly used for short-term liquidity turnover.
Chen Ji said.

Mona Lisa (002918) 2019 Annual Results Express Comment: Q4 Single-Quarter Revenue Hits New High Net Margin Trend

Mona Lisa (002918) 2019 Annual Results Express Comment: Q4 Single-Quarter Revenue Hits New High Net Margin Trend
The company’s Q4 南宁桑拿 single-quarter revenue reached a record high, the net interest rate trend increased, and its cash flow maintained an excellent level.   In the fourth quarter, the single-quarter revenue reached a new high, and the growth in the second half of 2019 increased significantly.The company released a quick performance report and achieved revenue in Q4 201911.28 ppm, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.980,000 yuan, an increase of 0 from the third quarter of 2019.560,000 yuan, the revenue for Q1-Q4 2019 increased by 12 respectively.32% / 14.69% / 23.37% / 21.97%, revenue growth accelerated significantly in the second half of the year.The growth of the income side comes from the sinking of the retail side channel, and the replacement comes from the engineering side’s product volume for old customers.It is expected that the production capacity of Tengxian County will be gradually increased to ease the increase of the company’s production capacity. In 2020, the company’s revenue will still reflect growth.   Under the background of increasing the proportion of B-ends, the net interest rate is on the rise, reflecting the advantages of scale and the trend of high-end retail products.The company’s net profit for the quarters 2018-2019 was 9 respectively.96% / 15.46% / 10.19% / 8.82% / 11.16% / 12.95% / 12.88%. Excluding other income (mainly government subsidies) and effects of non-operating income and expenses, the net interest rate is 7.79% / 9.15% / 12.34% / 9.44% / 8.69% / 9.89% / 10.95% / 12.88% (there is no detailed report in the fourth quarter of 2019, which is replaced by net interest rate), showing an upward trend (excluding the impact of the off-season in the first quarter).We believe that there are two main reasons: 1) Tiles are typical multi-SKU products. Increasing the output of a single category can save production costs and have a significant scale effect; 2) Company research and development, environmental advantages, and high-end retail products (especially large boards) accountThe increase in ratio has brought about an increase in the level of profitability.At the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company achieved ROE15 on the basis of more than 2 billion US dollars in cash.94% (15 in 2018.20%), showing good profitability.It is expected that the gradual use of raised funds and the release of new capacity will increase the company’s ROE level to more than 20% in the future.   Excellent cash flow.The company’s development strategy is two-wheel drive for engineering and retail business.Among them, the retail side business accounted for more than 50% in 2019, and only had good cash flow.The project is mainly aimed at large real estate developers such as Vanke, Country Garden, Poly, etc., with a certain accounting period, 苏州桑拿网 but the risk of bad debts is small.Taking into account the company’s industrial chain level, there will also be a certain amount of funds for upstream suppliers. As of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s accounts receivable + the absolute value of the bill should comply with the accounts + the absolute value of the bill.Pressure can achieve effective upstream profits and excellent cash flow conditions.   Risk factors: industry demand reduces risk; receivables collection risk.   Investment suggestion: We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for 2019-2021.3/5.5/6.6 trillion, maintain EPS forecast to 1.09/1.37/1.RMB 66, corresponding to an estimated 15 times in 2020. Maintain “Buy” rating